| 刊名 | Meteorological and Environmental Research |
| 作者 | Ping MIAO1, Rongyang WANG2, Ziyuan QIN2*, Hexiang ZHENG2, Hongli MA1, Jun WANG2, Haofang YAN3 |
| 作者单位 | 1.River and Lake Protection Center of Ordos City, Ordos 017000, China; 2. Pastoral Water Conservancy Science Research Institute of the Ministry of Water Resources, Hohhot 010020, China; 3. Research Center of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China |
| DOI | 10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2026.01.001 |
| 年份 | 2026 |
| 刊期 | 1 |
| 页码 | 1-12 |
| 关键词 | Kubuqi Desert; NDVI; Groundwater depth; Theil-Sen trend analysis; Land use change |
| 摘要 | Based on multi-source time-series data from 2017 to 2024, this study comprehensively employed Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, random forest regression model, and spatial and temporal lag correlation analysis to systematically investigate the variation characteristics of NDVI and their associated mechanisms with land use changes and groundwater depth in the study area. The results indicate that vegetation activity showed overall significant improvement during the study period, with 60.93% of the area exhibiting significant greening trends and only 6.55% showing degradation. The trajectory characteristics of land use changes could explain approximately 79.64% of the variation in NDVI trends, but their driving effects demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity, with core driving zones accounting for 79.22% of the area. Groundwater depth showed an overall weak negative correlation with NDVI (r = -0.046 4), but exhibited significant lag effects, and the correlation coefficient increased to -0.176 3 when there was a lag of 3 months. The study concludes that regional vegetation changes were primarily driven by land use activities, while the influences of groundwater showed spatial and temporal lag characteristics. Ecological restoration policies should integrate land use optimization with water resource management, and fully consider the spatial heterogeneity and temporal lag effects of driving mechanisms. |
