| 刊名 | Meteorological and Environmental Research |
| 作者 | Nan YIN1*, Huiqin LI2, Jinrong ZHOU3, Yan YU2, Yingxue CUI4, Meng HAN2 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Yunnan Provincial Meteorological Data Center, Kunming 650034, China; 2. Dehong Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Mangshi 678400, China; 3. Longchuan County Meteorological Bureau, Longchuan 678700, China; 4. Yingjiang County Meteorological Bureau, Yingjiang 679300, China |
| DOI | 10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2026.04.01 |
| 年份 | 2026 |
| 刊期 | 4 |
| 页码 | 1-11 |
| 关键词 | Bay of Bengal storm; First round of heavy precipitation; Monsoon convergence; Low-level jet stream; Terrain uplift |
| 摘要 | Using multi-source meteorological observation data, the causes and forecast points of the first round of continuous heavy precipitation process during the starting period of rainy season from May 24 to June 3, 2025 in Dehong Prefecture were analyzed. The results showed that: ① this heavy precipitation was formed by the influence of multiple systems such as convergence shear line, Bay of Bengal storm, monsoon trough, and low-level jet stream. The action time of each system did not overlap, and the precipitation was mainly stable, with significant differences in daily falling area and magnitude. ② According to the development stage of the Bay of Bengal storm, the process can be divided into three stages: convergence and shear of the South China Sea monsoon, southwest airflow outside the low-pressure system, and dominant southwest airflow in front of the monsoon trough. The strongest rainfall occurred on June 2. Combined with terrain uplift, the establishment of 850 hPa of southwest low-level jet stream provides key driving force and water vapor conditions for heavy precipitation. Its establishment and strengthening were important indicators for heavy precipitation forecasting in Dehong Prefecture. ③ The first round of heavy precipitation in Dehong Prefecture in early summer was closely related to the starting period of rainy season, and the forecast deviation was mainly due to insufficient prediction about the weakening speed of low-pressure system and the amplification effect of low-level jet stream. This paper can provide technical support for forecasting similar heavy precipitation in low-latitude plateaus. |
