| 摘要 |
Analog Ensemble (AnEn) is a statistical interpretation method based on historical similarity, big data sample retrieval, and ensemble forecasting ideas. It can form deterministic correction results based on numerical model outputs and further provide probability ranges and uncertainty information. In this paper, the surface meteorological elements in Hebei Province were taken as the research objects. Focusing on the forecasting of 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, total cloud cover, and low cloud cover, with comprehensive reference to relevant AnEn research results and phased experimental data of AnEn in Hebei Province, a similar sample screening and ensemble weighting scheme suitable for the complex terrain background of Hebei Province was constructed. The results showed that AnEn had a relatively stable correction effect on 2 m temperature forecasts and can significantly reduce the systematic bias of the model. For a wind speed of 10 m, the average effect of the entire region was not yet better than EC direct forecasting, but it had strong potential for improvement in complex terrain, non urban stations, and areas with large local errors. In cloud cover forecasting, the effect of low cloud cover was better than that of total cloud cover, and the accuracy of forecasting slightly decreased with the extension of time efficiency. The sample size experiment showed that when the number of members in the ensemble increased from 5 to 10, the MAE and RMSE overall decreased, and the ranking weight method was superior to the median method. Research has shown that AnEn can serve as an important objective interpretation tool for short- and medium-term surface element forecasting in Hebei region. |
