| 刊名 | Meteorological and Environmental Research |
| 作者 | Chaolong QIN*, Xiaozhu CHEN, Zixiang FENG, Shumeng LUO |
| 作者单位 | Wuchuan Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province, Wuchuan 524500, China |
| DOI | 10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2025.04-05-08 |
| 年份 | 2025 |
| 刊期 | 5 |
| 页码 | 29~32,36 |
| 关键词 | Extreme precipitation; Spatiotemporal distribution; Periodicity; Typhoon; Jianjiang River basin |
| 摘要 | Based on the meteorological observation data from 1994 to 2023, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and periodic changes of extreme precipitation were analyzed. The extreme precipitation showed a fluctuating upward trend, and reached a peak of 713.5 mm in 2010. The frequency of events increased from 7 times in 1994-2000 to 56 times in 2020-2023, with significant periodicity of 3-4 and 7-8 a. In terms of spatial distribution, the precipitation intensity in the upper reaches was significantly higher than that in the middle and lower reaches, reaching 421.6 and 405.7 mm respectively. The lowest was in downstream Wuchuan City (268.3 mm), showing a decreasing trend from upstream to downstream. Extreme precipitation was mainly concentrated from July to October, especially in September (accounting for 25.8%). Typhoon was the main cause, with 80% of the TOP10 records related to typhoons, and the average precipitation intensity of typhoons reached 501.6 mm. The average precipitation intensity from 2020 to 2023 reached 442.8 mm. The correlation coefficient between 12-h rainfall intensity and flood level was 0.85, and the accuracy of flood warning based on rainfall intensity threshold was 78%, which had guiding significance for flood control and disaster reduction. |
