| 刊名 | Meteorological and Environmental Research |
| 作者 | Yue LI, Riyuan HAO*, Lulu WANG, Jianyong LIU |
| 作者单位 | Zhangjiakou Meteorological Bureau, Zhangjiakou 075000, China |
| DOI | 10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2025.04-05-01 |
| 年份 | 2025 |
| 刊期 | 5 |
| 页码 | 1~5,8 |
| 关键词 | Extreme temperature; Variation characteristics; Return period |
| 摘要 | Huailai County in Zhangjiakou was taken as the research area. Based on daily temperature data from 1992 to 2021, various methods were used to analyze the characteristics of extreme temperature changes in the region and estimate extreme temperature values for different return periods. The results showed that from 1992 to 2021, both the annual average maximum and minimum temperatures in Huailai County exhibited a slight downward trend, with continuous low temperatures from 2010 to 2012; the annual average extreme maximum temperature slightly decreased, reaching a peak in 2010, with July being the concentrated period of extreme high temperatures; the extreme minimum temperature "continuously cooled down", with multiple occurrences of low temperatures in the past decade and a decrease in the number of high temperature days. The estimation of return periods based on the Gumbel distribution indicates that the temperature values for different return periods vary between the highest and lowest temperature months, and the longer the return period, the more significant the extreme temperature values and the larger the standard deviation. The research can provide a basis for local agricultural development. |
