Development of an ICU Artificial Airway-Related Pressure Injury Risk Prediction Model Based on Meta-Analysis and Nomogram
摘要:
[Objectives] To systematically analyze the risk factors for medical device-related pressure injury (MDRPI) associated with artificial airways in ICU patients and to develop and validate a bedside-applicable nomogram risk prediction model. [Methods] Following the PRISMA guidelines, systematic searches were conducted in databases including PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI, etc. (from January 2010 to December 2024), with 32 studies included for meta-analysis. Concurrently, prospective clinical data from 300 ICU patients with artificial airways were collected. Independent risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression, and a nomogram model was constructed. Model performance was evaluated using the C-index, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Bootstrap internal validation, and decision curve analysis (DCA). [Results] Meta-analysis revealed that duration of artificial airway placement, use of a subglottic secretion drainage (SSD) tube, type of fixation device, and the moisture, mobility, and friction/shear subscale scores of the Braden Scale were all risk factors for MDRPI. The incidence of MDRPI in the clinical cohort was 14.0%. Multivariate analysis confirmed that all six aforementioned factors were independent predictors (P<0.05). The model's C-index was 0.88, adjusted to 0.87 after internal validation. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded P=0.423. DCA indicated favorable clinical net benefit within the threshold probability range of 10% to 80%. [Conclusions] The nomogram model developed based on meta-analysis and a clinical cohort demonstrates good discrimination and calibration. It can assist nursing staff in the early identification of high-risk patients and facilitate stratified prevention strategies.
关键词:
Intensive care unit, Artificial airway, Pressure injury, Medical device-related pressure injury, Meta-analysis, Nomogram, Risk prediction