Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Vegetation in Jiangsu Province from 2002 to 2022 Based on kNDVI
摘要:
Vegetation not only plays a critical role in regulating regional climate, hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration, and oxygen release, but also is directly linked to ecosystem stability and regional sustainable development. In this study, based on the data of kNDVI in Jiangsu Province (an economically developed coastal region in eastern China) from 2002 to 2022, the spatial and temporal dynamics of vegetation in the province were systematically analyzed by using the Theil- Sen slope estimation and Mann – Kendall trend test methods. The results indicate that vegetation coverage in Jiangsu Province generally followed a trend of “fluctuation in the early period and improvement in the later period” from 2002 to 2022. Spatially, kNDVI changes exhibited clear heterogeneity, with an overall pattern of “decline in the south, increase in the north, and stability in the central region”. Based on the 21-year mean of kNDVI, it is found that vegetation conditions were relatively better in northern and central Jiangsu, while lower mean of kNDVI was observed in southern Jiangsu (e.g., Suzhou, Wuxi, and Changzhou), reflecting the pressure of accelerating urbanization on green space coverage. Further investigation into the driving factors of changes in vegetation reveals that social factors had the strongest influence, with a path coefficient of −0.86, followed by topographic and climatic factors. This spatial differentiation pattern and the identified driving factors highlight ongoing conflicts between the economic development and ecological conservation in Jiangsu Province. In the future, land use structure should be optimized based on local conditions, and coordinated development between ecological restoration and urban expansion should be strengthened.
关键词:
kNDVI; Vegetation coverage; Variation trend; Driving factors; Jiangsu Province