| 刊名 | Meteorological and Environmental Research |
| 作者 | Zhiyuan YIN1,2, Fang YANG3*, Xiaohua LI2 |
| 作者单位 | 1. China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, China; 2. Huanggang Meteorological Bureau of Hubei Province, Huanggang 438020, China; 3. Hubei Province Meteorological Information and Support Centre, Wuhan 430074, China |
| DOI | 10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2024.03.011 |
| 年份 | 2024 |
| 刊期 | 3 |
| 页码 | 53-59 |
| 关键词 | Hydrometeor; EC; WRF; Xin’an River model; Bailian River |
| 摘要 | In order to extend the forecasting period of flood and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting, this paper took Bailian River Reservoir which located in Huanggang City of Hubei Province as an example and carried out basin flood simulation and forecasting by coupling the quantitative precipitation forecasting products of numerical forecast operation model of Institute of Heavy Rain in Wuhan (WRF) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with the three water sources Xin'an River model. The experimental results showed that the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall predicted by EC is closer to the actual situation compared to WRF; the efficiency coefficient and peak time difference of EC used for flood forecasting are comparable to WRF, but the average relative error of flood peaks is about 14% smaller than WRF. Overall, the precipitation forecasting products of the two numerical models can be used for flood forecasting in the Bailian River basin. Some forecasting indicators have certain reference value, and there is still significant room for improvement in the forecasting effects of the two models. |
