| 刊名 | Meteorological and Environmental Research |
| 作者 | Yan YU1*, Bowen LIU2,3,4*, Wan GONG1,3, Shuxuan HE1,3, Lei WEI5 |
| 作者单位 | 1. Dehong Meteorological Observatory, Dehong 678400, China; 2. Yunnan Meteorological Observatory, Kunming 650034, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Heavy Rainfall in River Basins, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, China; 4. Research Center for Disastrous Weather over Hengduan Mountains & Low-Latitude Plateau, China Meteorological Administration, Kunming 650034, China; 5. Yunnan Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring, Kunming 650216, China |
| DOI | 10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2024.02.010 |
| 年份 | 2024 |
| 刊期 | 2 |
| 页码 | 48-54,61 |
| 关键词 | Heavy rainfall; Low-pressure inverted trough; Geological disaster; Forecast deviation |
| 摘要 | On August 7, 2023, Mangshi City, Dehong Prefecture experienced a local heavy rainstorm, and the geological disaster caused by the heavy rainfall caused casualties and property losses. Based on the real-time observation data of automatic stations, Doppler weather radar detection and meteorological risk warning products, the disaster situation, social impact, forecast and early warning service, causes of heavy precipitation and forecast and early warning inspection were summarized and analyzed. The results show that the heavy rainfall was prominent locally, lasted for a long time and accumulated a large amount of rainfall. There were biases in model products, and it was difficult for forecasters to make subjective corrections in complex terrain. The analysis ideas and focus points of heavy rainfall forecast, the improvement ideas and technical schemes of forecast deviation, and the improvement ideas and suggestions of services were summarized. It provides a reference for the forecast and early warning of severe weather in the future. |
