| 刊名 |
Meteorological and Environmental Research |
| 作者 |
Xuefeng YANG, Sitong LIU* |
| 作者单位 |
Hulunbuir Meteorological Bureau, Hulunbuir 021008, China |
| DOI |
10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2025.02.014 |
| 年份 |
2025 |
| 刊期 |
2 |
| 页码 |
59-61 |
| 关键词 |
Temperature forecast; Wind speed forecast; Objective correction; Dynamic optimum; Mountain meteorology |
| 摘要 |
According to the demand for weather forecast at the venues of the 14th National Winter Games, based on the data of the fine grid model of the European Centre (EC) and RMAPS model, as well as the real-time observation data of the competition fields, a dynamic optimal correction method was proposed to improve the accuracy rate of temperature and wind speed prediction. Through techniques such as deviation correction and univariate linear regression, mathematical models applicable to different competition regions were constructed, and the effective correction of objective forecast products within 0-120 h were realized. The results show that this method significantly improved the accuracy rate of the prediction of temperature, wind speed and extreme wind speed, and the effect was more obvious especially when the model performance was unstable. Meanwhile, terrain and climate background had a significant impact on the correction effect. This study provides new technical support for mountain meteorological forecast.
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