| 摘要 |
The forecast results of temperature based on the intelligent grids of the Central Meteorological Observatory and the meteorological bureau of the autonomous region and the numerical forecast model of the European Center (EC model) from February to December in 2022 were used. Based on the data of the national intelligent grid forecast, the intelligent grid forecast of the regional bureau, EC model, etc., temperature was predicted. According to the research of the grid point forecast synthesis algorithm with the highest accuracy rate in the recent three days, the temperature grid point correction was conducted in two forms of stations and grids. In order to reduce the deviation caused by the seasonal system temperature difference, a temperature prediction model was established by using the rolling forecast errors of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 d as the basis data. The verification and evaluation of objective correction results show that the accuracy rate of temperature forecast by the intelligent grid of the regional bureau, the national intelligent grid, and EC model could be increased by 10%, 8%, and 12%, respectively. |
