| 刊名 | Meteorological and Environmental Research |
| 作者 | Sitong LIU, Xuefeng YANG* |
| 作者单位 | Hulunbuir Meteorological Bureau, Hulunbuir 021008, China |
| DOI | 10.19547/j.issn2152-3940.2025.01.009 |
| 年份 | 2025 |
| 刊期 | 1 |
| 页码 | 37-40 |
| 关键词 | Intelligent forecast; Relative humidity; Model test |
| 摘要 | Based on ground observation data of relative humidity, the prediction performance of STNF and MIFS in each competition area during February 13-26, 2024 was tested and evaluated by using two intelligent forecasting methods (STNF and MIFS). The results show that STNF had better performance in forecasting relative humidity in high-altitude areas, and was suitable for fine forecasting under complex terrain. MIFS improved the short-term forecast of some low-altitude stations, but the long-term reliability was insufficient. STNF method performed better than MIFS during 0-24 h. As the prediction time extended to 24-72 h, the errors of both methods showed a systematic increase trend. STNF had higher precision, lower root mean square error and smaller mean error in most regions under the background of most weather systems, showing its superiority as a forecasting method of relative humidity. However, the precision of MIFS was slightly higher than that of STNF in Liangcheng without system background, revealing that MIFS may also be an effective option in some specific conditions. |
