| 摘要 |
This paper conducted a more comprehensive review and comparative analysis of the two heavy to blizzard processes that occurred in the Beijing area during December 13-15, 2023, and February 20-21, 2024, in terms of comprehensive weather situation diagnosis, forecasting, and decision-making services, and summarized the meteorological service support experience of such heavy snow weather processes. It was found that both blizzard processes were jointly influenced by the 700 hPa southwesterly warm and humid jet stream and the near-surface easterly backflow; the numerical forecast was relatively accurate in the overall description of the snowfall process, and the forecast bias of the position of the 700 hPa southwesterly warm and humid jet stream determined the bias of the snowfall magnitude forecast at a certain point; when a deviation was found between the actual snowfall and the forecast, the cause should be analyzed in a timely manner, and the warning and forecast conclusions should be updated. With the full cooperation of relevant departments, it can greatly make up for the deviation of the early forecast snowfall amount, and ensure the safety and efficiency of people's travel. |
